Reward&Risk > Crime > Reward&Risk Analysis & Management
R&R analysis & Management
for Crime 2012
Last revised: January 10, 2013

Navy  seals offer practical tips you want to survive a massacre, like that at Sandy Hook, Navy seals offer practical tips 12/31/12

"How To Increase Survivability And Beat The Odds" (audio, 1:37:49) (SOFREP,12/26/12)

The nearby reference includes a link to a 90-minute podcast that does just what it promises. We summarize, below, ten of the tips, but the podcast fleshes them out in more detail.

"(7 Ps_(military_adage)" (Wikip., acc. 12/29/12)

  1. Remember the "7 Ps": "Proper Planning and Preparation Prevents Piss Poor Performance". The experts on the podcast didn't mention them, specifically, but the "7 Ps" are the foundation of peak performance.
  2. Avoid the more likely times and places for mass murder. Don't go to an amusement park, ball game, etc. at peak time. Go off-peak and off-season.
  3. Plan your (and your family's, etc.) response to a possible emergency. Don't try to make a plan on the fly.

Situational awareness: "Saxe Point Jogger Attacked" (Youtube, 10/21/12)

  1. Maintain situational awareness. For example, don't "bop" around, listening intently to music through headphones [like the young woman killed in Terminator (1984)].
  2. Make successful flight from danger your top priority, particularly if you are with loved ones.
  3. Move quickly. The murderer is "probably not a trained marksman", is not likely to hit a fast-moving target, but can put a bullet in you from one foot away.
  4. Don't stop fleeing when you escape the immediate threat, which may be part of a larger threat.
  5. Arm yourself with a high-lumens flashlight that will blind an attacker for a few seconds in daylight, and for a longer time in the dark. You may then strike the attacker with the light and/or just flee.
  6. Prefer cover (e.g., behind a brick wall) over mere concealment (e.g., behind a curtain).

"'If I Only Had a Gun': Click Here for 20/20 Special" (ABC, 4/10/09)

  1. If you haven't taken tactical combat training with your weapon, don't suppose that you are prepared to engage a murderer in a gunfight.

Facing all Sorts of Violence

Rory Miller's book, Facing Violence,  has won multiple prizes. It earned five stars on Amazon, because 72 of its 84 customer reviews were five-stars, seven were four-star, and five were three-star.

The most influential positive customer reviewer, J. Steinmann, points out that this book has only one chapter about actual violence. The other six are mainly about related legal, ethical, emotional, and social aspects before and after the fight, and Steinmann approves Miller's emphasis.

The most influential "negative" reviewer--still, three stars--writes, "This is a great book." He finds the cover misleading, given that the book is not a textbook on dealing with street crime. This review mentions favorably the value of considering how to meet force with reasonable force, so as to avoid a felony charge. This is an idea that George Zimmerman and Bernie Goetz have no doubt contemplated after they met force threats of force with violence, and had to defend their actions in court.

Miller's college degree is in psychology, and much of his book is about important "psychological" issues. Miller's work experience is largely in corrections, but his c.v. has lots of other, relevant experience that you can read on Amazon.  


"Trayvon Martin death is Fla.'s story of the year" (NWFDailyNews, 12/28/12)

Miller raises legal issues, which are clearly important, as anyone familiary with the legal consequences for shooters Bernie Goetz and George Zimmerman knows. Miller is not a lawyer. So, when he raises legal issues, he asks the reader to ask a local lawyer about relevant laws where the reader is.

Tactical responses to gun crimes 1/2/13

Police, infantry, special operators (e.g, Navy Seals), etc. perform jobs for which the probability of confronting armed  and dangerous opponents is large. So, they need to know effective tactical approaches and responses to such confrontations, or they are likely to die. They learn these tactics from training and experience. The rest of us could learn from them.

For example, we observed, while in graduate school at the University of Chicago, that Chicago police who dined where we dined always sat with their backs to a wall and with a clear view of the entrance to the restaurant. We concluded that this was a way to avoid being shot in the back.

SOFREP’s 2012 Greatest Hits #1: Navy SEAL Lessons Learned From Aurora CO" (SOFREP, 12/26/12)

"How To Increase Survivability And Beat The Odds" (audio, 1:37:49) (SOFREP,12/26/12)

"A Green Beret’s Response to the Aurora Shooting" (SOFREP, 7/27/12)

The professionals have many other tactics for surviving armed combat, some of these apply to events, such as the shootings in Aurora, CO and Newtown, CT. The nearby links take you to relevant words by special operators.